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Lalenpuii

Growth dynamics analysis of cauliflower in Himachal Pradesh

India, one of the top producers of cauliflower (Brassica
oleracea var. botrytis) has made a significant contribution to the agricultural, nutritional and commercial
value. The present study examines the growth dynamics of cauliflower production, pricing, productivity
and area in the state of Himachal Pradesh. It focuses
on the Solan district for data on pricing, productivity
and output from 2003 to 2020, and on area, production
and productivity from 1995 to 2020. The study projects
future scenarios and analyses previous trends using
statistical tools, such as seasonal indices, decomposition analysis, Cuddy–Della Valle Index (CDVI), compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and autoregressive
integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. Results indicate that the growth rate in production
(8.77%) surpassed the growth in area (6.48%), whereas productivity growth stood at 7%. Despite fluctuations, cauliflower cultivation remains relatively stable,
with area expansion being the primary driver of production growth. The optimal ARIMA models for forecasting area, production and productivity were
identified as ARIMA (0, 2, 1), ARIMA (2, 2, 2) and
ARIMA (2, 2, 1) respectively, suggesting an increasing
trend in area and productivity, whereas production is
projected to decline. Price growth rates ranged from
4.45% to 7.51%, exhibiting low variation, and seasonal
indices revealed higher off-season variability compared
to peak season. The selected ARIMA model for price
forecasting is ARIMA (0, 0, 1) (0, 1, 2) with drift. These
insights provide valuable information for policymakers
and stakeholders in the cauliflower market.

Subjects--Facted Index Terms:
ARIMA
seasonal indices
forecasting
decomposition analysis
cauliflower