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M. N. Thimmegowda

Deliberations on the applicability of IMD’s medium range weather forecasts for their usability in Agromet Advisory Services for the farmers of South Interior Karnataka, India - pp70-77

Climate risk management in rainfed regions entails
forecasting, impact assessment and relief planning,
with emphasis on timely forecast dissemination and
accurate loss estimation. Under the Gramin Krishi
Mausam Sewa initiative, the India Meteorological
Department issues agro-meteorological advisories,
evaluated using qualitative, quantitative and statistical methods. In the present study on South Interior Karnataka, the forecast accuracy was higher
for temperature (75–79%) than for wind speed and
rainfall. Ramanagara showed the best rainfall forecast performance. Statistical tests (Hanssen–Kuipers,
Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling) revealed
spatial variability, influenced by orography. Taylor
diagram analysis confirmed good agreement between observed and forecasted temperatures (0.7–0.8
for maximum temperature, 0.6–0.7 for minimum
temperature), indicating reliable temperature forecasts.

Subjects--Facted Index Terms:
Agromet Advisory
climate risk
management, forecasts
South Interior Karnataka