Lalenpuii <br/><br/>
Growth dynamics analysis of cauliflower in Himachal Pradesh 

<br/><br/> India, one of the top producers of cauliflower (Brassica<br/>oleracea var. botrytis) has made a significant contribution to the agricultural, nutritional and commercial<br/>value. The present study examines the growth dynamics of cauliflower production, pricing, productivity<br/>and area in the state of Himachal Pradesh. It focuses<br/>on the Solan district for data on pricing, productivity<br/>and output from 2003 to 2020, and on area, production<br/>and productivity from 1995 to 2020. The study projects<br/>future scenarios and analyses previous trends using<br/>statistical tools, such as seasonal indices, decomposition analysis, Cuddy–Della Valle Index (CDVI), compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and autoregressive<br/>integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. Results indicate that the growth rate in production<br/>(8.77%) surpassed the growth in area (6.48%), whereas productivity growth stood at 7%. Despite fluctuations, cauliflower cultivation remains relatively stable,<br/>with area expansion being the primary driver of production growth. The optimal ARIMA models for forecasting area, production and productivity were<br/>identified as ARIMA (0, 2, 1), ARIMA (2, 2, 2) and<br/>ARIMA (2, 2, 1) respectively, suggesting an increasing<br/>trend in area and productivity, whereas production is<br/>projected to decline. Price growth rates ranged from<br/>4.45% to 7.51%, exhibiting low variation, and seasonal<br/>indices revealed higher off-season variability compared<br/>to peak season. The selected ARIMA model for price<br/>forecasting is ARIMA (0, 0, 1) (0, 1, 2) with drift. These<br/>insights provide valuable information for policymakers<br/>and stakeholders in the cauliflower market. 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Facted Index Terms: </label><br/>ARIMA<br/>seasonal indices<br/>forecasting<br/>decomposition analysis<br/>cauliflower